A 32-year-old doctoral candidate backed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani and the Democratic Socialists of America is within eight points of a five-term incumbent congressman in one of New York's most storied districts, with nearly four in ten voters still up for grabs a week before Election Day. Adriano Espaillat, the first Dominican-American ever elected to Congress, is not exactly cruising. And Bernie Sanders is flying in Thursday to make sure it stays that way.
Eight Points and a Whole Lot of Undecideds
The New York Post obtained a poll conducted by Mercury Public Affairs for the pro-Espaillat National Black Empowerment Action Fund, which found Espaillat leading Darializa Avila Chevalier 35% to 27% among likely Democratic primary voters in New York's 13th Congressional District. That is not a comfortable number for a congressman who has held this seat since 2016 and served in the state legislature for years before that.
The survey, taken June 9-11 from 468 likely Democratic primary voters, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 points and was commissioned by a group that wants Espaillat to win. That last part matters. This is not an independent pollster lowballing a favorite. This is his own side's polling, and it shows him eight points up with 38% of the district still making up its mind.
To put that another way: if those undecided voters break even remotely toward the challenger, this race is over. And the undecideds are not breaking toward Espaillat, or they would have by now.
Who Is Darializa Avila Chevalier and Why Is She This Close
Chevalier is an immigration activist and doctoral candidate who has become the vehicle for a Mamdani-aligned insurgency in a district that covers Morningside Heights, Harlem, East Harlem, Washington Heights, Inwood, and the western Bronx. She is 32. Espaillat is 71. That generational gap is not subtle, and it is doing a lot of work in this race.
The same coalition that handed Mamdani a genuinely shocking victory over Andrew Cuomo in last year's mayoral primary has essentially transplanted itself into NY-13. Mamdani has stumped with Chevalier directly, and the DSA's organizing infrastructure is fully deployed. On Thursday, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is headlining a Brooklyn rally with Mamdani to support both Chevalier and DSA candidate Claire Valdez, who is running in the open 7th District race to replace the retiring Rep. Nydia Velázquez.
The Post's polling shows Chevalier leading Espaillat among white voters in the district, 35% to 25%. Espaillat leads among Black voters 36% to 21% and among Latinos 42% to 30%, which is his base and the reason he is still ahead. The question is whether that base shows up.
The Establishment Fires Back
Espaillat is not sitting on his hands. House Democratic Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and the Congressional Black Caucus, led by Brooklyn Rep. Yvette Clarke, have formally backed Espaillat. Over the weekend, he picked up endorsements from state Sen. Cordell Cleare and Assembly members Al Taylor and Jordan Wright, all representing the Harlem portion of the district.
The National Black Empowerment Action Fund super PAC is dropping at least $500,000 in the race's final week, running digital ads calling Espaillat a "real Democrat" and painting the DSA as outside agitators trying to "gentrify your neighborhood." Senior NBEAF advisor Darius Jones told the Post that Black and Hispanic voters "don't like the trick the DSA is trying to pull in Harlem." Jones argued that the people who suffer most from policies like defunding the police are communities of color, not the DSA members with doormen.
It is a sharp political argument, and it is not wrong on its face. The same poll found 72% of respondents support school choice and charter schools, and nearly as many oppose defunding the police. The establishment is betting that the DSA's policy positions are genuinely unpopular in this district even if its organizing energy is not.
The Mamdani Factor
Here is where it gets complicated. Every political professional in New York City spent the better part of 2025 telling anyone who would listen that Zohran Mamdani could not beat Andrew Cuomo. The polls said it, the donors said it, the party infrastructure said it. Then the votes were counted.
Mamdani won because he turned out younger voters at rates nobody modeled. That is not ancient history. That is last year. And he is personally invested in this race in a way that goes beyond a generic endorsement, stumping alongside Chevalier and lending his operation to her campaign.
Polling primary elections is genuinely hard, as the Post acknowledges. The electorate is small, it is hard to model, and turnout is everything. The question is not who votes in theory. It is who shows up at 6am on June 23 and actually pulls the lever. If Espaillat's older working-class base turns out in force, he probably wins. If Mamdani's people replicate what they did in 2025, he might not.
The Dingo Take
Let's be honest about what is actually happening here. A five-term congressman, backed by the full weight of the House Democratic leadership, the Congressional Black Caucus, and half a million dollars in super PAC money, is eight points up with 38% undecided one week out. That is not dominance. That is a guy sweating through his shirt at a job interview he thought was a formality.
The DSA's hard-left policy positions may well be unpopular in NY-13 among the broader electorate, as this poll suggests. That is a legitimate thing to know. But organizing and turnout and a fired-up coalition do not care about cross-tabs. Mamdani taught New York that lesson about fourteen months ago, and apparently some people are still not fully absorbing it. Bernie Sanders flying in for a rally is not a sign that the insurgents think they are losing.
Whatever happens on June 23, this race is a preview. The Mamdani machine is testing whether the energy that won City Hall can translate into congressional seats, and they are doing it in a district where the incumbent is a genuine progressive with real community ties and institutional support that would have been decisive in any normal cycle. This is not a normal cycle. Watch the turnout numbers carefully, because they are going to tell you something important about what the Democratic Party looks like for the next decade.
