Susan Collins has survived everything Maine politics could throw at her for nearly three decades, but a new Fox News poll out Wednesday suggests her biggest liability in 2026 might be the guy she keeps trying to distance herself from: Donald Trump. Democratic challenger Troy Jackson leads Collins 48-46% in the statewide survey, well within the margin of error but a 5-point swing from June when Collins held a 3-point advantage over the previous Democratic nominee. This race is moving in the wrong direction for the incumbent, and Collins knows it.
The Numbers Collins Does Not Want to See
According to the Fox News poll, 55% of Maine voters are concerned that Collins votes with Trump too often. Only 43% are worried that Jackson is too cozy with the democratic socialist movement. That is a 12-point gap on the single most important framing question in the race, and it belongs entirely to Collins.
Among independents, the gap gets worse. Fox News found that by a 14-point margin, more independents are worried Collins is too close to Trump than are worried Jackson is too progressive. Collins has spent years cultivating her reputation as the sensible moderate Republican from a purple state. That brand is eroding in real time.
Collins has held her Senate seat since 1997. She won her fifth term in 2020 by nearly 9 points. She is not a political amateur who stumbles into bad poll numbers. When Fox News, of all outlets, releases a survey showing you bleeding support and trailing your opponent, the situation deserves more than spin.
The Candidate Democrats Didn't Plan On
Troy Jackson was not supposed to be the Democratic nominee. Graham Platner held that position until July, when he withdrew following an assault allegation. Jackson, a fifth-generation logger from Allagash and former president of the Maine Senate, stepped in as the replacement.
Here is the part that should concern Collins: swapping nominees actually helped the Democrats. Jackson does 1 point better than Platner in the head-to-head, while Collins has dropped 4 points since June. The Democratic bench in Maine just upgraded mid-race, and the Republican incumbent got worse anyway.
The shift in what is driving each candidate's coalition is revealing. Fox News found that 61% of Jackson's supporters say their vote is mainly against Collins, up from 48% when Platner was on the ticket. Collins' race has transformed from a contest about the Democratic challenger into a referendum on her own record. That is an uncomfortable place for a five-term incumbent to be sitting in August of an election year.
Trump's Weight Around Her Neck
Collins is the only Republican senator running for re-election this year in a state Trump lost in 2024. Maine went for Kamala Harris by 7 points. Trump's personal favorable rating in the state is currently underwater by 20 points, with 39% favorable and 59% unfavorable, according to the Fox News survey.
So Collins is an incumbent Republican running in a state that rejected her party's president by a wide margin, while more than half of voters think she votes with that president too often. There is no clean way out of that box. She can't run toward Trump without alienating the independents she needs, and she can't run away from him without enraging the MAGA base that makes up the overwhelming majority of her current coalition.
Almost all self-identified MAGA Republicans back Collins, the poll found, but that number drops to about three-quarters among non-MAGA Republicans. Nearly one in five non-MAGA Republicans are willing to back Jackson. That is a significant crack in what should be her floor.
The Family Story Democrats Are Hoping Voters Ignore
Jackson's campaign is not without its complications. Fox News Digital separately reported that multiple Democrats, when questioned, denied knowing anything about a report claiming Jackson fathered two children with his second cousin. That is not a detail any campaign manager wants floating around in the final stretch of a competitive Senate race.
The Fox News poll does not appear to show that story has significantly damaged Jackson yet. His favorable rating sits at 47% favorable versus 46% unfavorable, essentially neutral, while Collins is underwater by 10 points at 44% favorable and 54% unfavorable. Among voters who view both candidates negatively, Jackson leads by 3 points in the horse race. Even the "everyone is bad" voters are breaking toward the Democrat.
One in five Jackson supporters told pollsters they might change their mind before Election Day, compared to a larger share of Collins backers who say their choice is locked in. That is the one number Jackson's campaign cannot be comfortable with. Soft support in a tight race is a liability, and this race is going to stay tight.
What's Actually on Voters' Minds
Inflation is the dominant issue in Maine, with roughly one-third of voters telling Fox News it will be the most important factor in their Senate vote. Immigration, healthcare, and political division round out the top concerns.
Jackson leads by 29 points among the 40% of Maine voters who say they are falling behind financially. That is a big number, and it reflects a broader national pattern: economic anxiety is not currently flowing toward the Republican Party the way Trump's team assumed it would after 2024. When people feel squeezed, they're looking for someone to blame, and the party in power tends to absorb that.
Democrats also have a significant enthusiasm advantage heading into the fall. Fox News found Democratic voters are 18 points more likely than Republicans to say they are extremely interested in the election and 9 points more motivated to vote. The two groups are nearly equal in certainty of actually casting a ballot, so the gap is not about turnout mechanics. Democrats just want to win this one more badly. That matters in a race this close.
The Bigger Picture for Senate Control
Democrats have identified Maine as a must-win seat in their push to take back the Senate. Collins represents one of the cleaner pickup opportunities on the map: a Republican incumbent in a Harris-won state, trailing in a late-summer poll, with underwater favorables and a Trump-alignment problem she cannot shake.
Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who co-conducts the Fox News surveys, put it plainly: "Replacing Platner with Jackson has allowed two other factors to assert themselves — opposition to President Trump and a desire for change. The race remains close, and I'd never count Collins out, but you have to give a slight edge to the Democrats here."
When the Republican pollster working for the most Trump-friendly major news network is telling you the Democrat has a slight edge, the Republican probably has a slight problem.
The Dingo Take
Susan Collins has played the "reasonable Republican" card longer and more skillfully than almost anyone in the Senate. For years, it worked. She would make a show of concern, furrow her brow at some particularly egregious Trump behavior, occasionally vote with Democrats on something low-stakes, and Maine kept sending her back. The brand held. It is not holding anymore.
Fifty-five percent of Maine voters now think she votes with Trump too often. Her favorable rating has dropped 10 points in the underwater direction in just two months. She is trailing a replacement candidate who had to be swapped in mid-race after the original nominee imploded. And the Fox News poll, conducted by a Republican pollster, is calling it a slight Democratic edge. Collins is not done, she has too much money and too much institutional muscle to count out in August, but she is losing the argument that defines this race. Voters are not asking whether Jackson is too liberal. They are asking whether Collins is too Trumpified. That is her problem to solve, and so far she isn't solving it.
Maine Democrats have one job between now and November: make this a referendum on Collins and Trump. The Fox News numbers suggest that framing is already winning. Keep Jackson out of trouble, keep the economic anxiety pointed at the party running the federal government, and let Collins try to explain why she's a moderate while 55% of her own constituents think otherwise. That is a hard case to make. It gets harder every week Trump does something that lands on the front page.
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