Donald Trump stood in a high school gymnasium in Vandalia, Ohio on Saturday night and told voters their best strategy for winning the midterms was to pretend he was on the ballot. He was not on the ballot. The gym had empty seats.
The Pep Talk Nobody Asked For
NBC News was in the room when Trump laid out his theory of the 2026 midterms with characteristic subtlety. "When I run, we win," he told the crowd. "But for some reason, when I don't run, they draw 44% less people. So what I'm going to do is ask you to just pretend that I'm running."
That's the pitch. That's the whole pitch. The sitting president of the United States, barnstorming Ohio for his party's candidates, landed on "use your imagination" as the closing argument. Pretend. Like he's Santa Claus, or a security blanket, or a concept rather than a man who currently controls the nuclear codes.
The rally, held at Butler High School near Dayton, was a smaller venue than Trump typically uses. The home court seats up to 5,000. According to NBC News, there were stretches of empty seats in the upper bleachers when Trump took the stage, and more by the time he wrapped up 93 minutes later.
What He Was Actually There to Do
The visit was about Ohio's two biggest races: Senate and governor. Trump is backing incumbent Sen. Jon Husted, who holds the seat he was appointed to after JD Vance became vice president, and Vivek Ramaswamy, the GOP nominee for governor. NBC News reports this stop is part of a planned push through at least 17 states before November 3.
Husted's race in particular has Republicans quietly losing their minds. The National Republican Senatorial Committee issued a memo in August warning that Husted's past advocacy for data centers was dragging down his numbers. Others, per NBC News, have floated concerns that Husted, who has long had his eye on the governor's mansion, isn't exactly bleeding for this Senate seat.
The Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC tied to Majority Leader John Thune, dropped another $14 million into Ohio this week. That brings their total investment in the state to $93 million. Ninety-three million dollars to hold a seat in a state Trump won by 11 points. That is not a flex. That is a fire alarm.
The Unpopularity Problem Nobody's Pretending Away
Here's what makes the "pretend I'm running" line more than just a funny quote. It is an admission. Trump and his allies know exactly what the problem is, and it has nothing to do with enthusiasm for Jon Husted's position on data centers.
Polls show Trump himself is deeply unpopular heading into November, and the war in Iran is dragging him further down, NBC News reports. The voters who turn out specifically for Trump, the every-four-year crowd who treat Election Day like a Trump-specific holiday, have no obvious reason to show up when he's not on the ticket. Nick Owens, a former GOP county chair in Brown County, Ohio, put it plainly to NBC News last month: "I have real concerns that those voters just will not come to the polls."
That's a Republican saying that. A former Republican party official. Out loud. About his own party's chances. In Ohio.
The Greatest Hits, Plus Jon Gruden
Trump did the usual stuff. He praised Husted. He praised Ramaswamy. He praised Rep. Mike Turner and hyped several House candidates in the room, including Derek Merrin, who is running against longtime Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur in northwest Ohio. He told the crowd they were going to win big and, in a line NBC News faithfully transcribed, promised they were going to "shove it up their ass."
The event also featured a cameo from Jon Gruden, the former NFL coach who reportedly played football with Husted at the University of Dayton. "Jon Husted is a lot more than my friend," Gruden told the crowd. "He was a great player. He will never quit on you or anybody." Jon Gruden, whose NFL coaching career ended in 2021 after a trove of emails surfaced containing racist, homophobic, and misogynistic language, was there to vouch for character. Ohio Republicans: setting a high bar.
What $93 Million and a Presidential Visit Actually Signals
Ohio Republicans are putting a confident face on a situation that requires a $93 million super PAC investment and a presidential babysitting visit to a half-filled high school gym. Ohio GOP chair Alex Triantafilou told NBC News the rally was "hugely important" and insisted the path to winning is simply replicating the 2024 turnout numbers.
"Nobody speaks to that crowd better than President Trump," Triantafilou said. That crowd, per NBC News's own reporting from the room, left a noticeable number of upper-bleacher seats empty before Trump even finished talking. Husted, for his part, kept it simple: if the 2024 Ohio electorate shows up, he wins. The question every Republican in the state is quietly terrified to answer is whether it will.
The Dingo Take
"Pretend that I'm running." That is the president of the United States telling his own voters to engage in a collective hallucination in order to save his party's Senate majority. Not "here's what we've accomplished." Not "here's what's at stake." Pretend. Dress up. Let's play make-believe, Ohio.
The real story inside that half-empty gym is that nobody has figured out how to run as a Trump Republican when Trump is profoundly unpopular, the Iran war is a political disaster, and the voters who make the coalition work only show up when the man himself is on the ballot. Ninety-three million dollars from Senate Leadership Fund can buy a lot of ads. It cannot buy a reason to vote when the guy you actually like isn't running. You cannot Super PAC your way out of that problem.
Ramaswamy is running for governor of a state where the president had to fly in, speak for 93 minutes, and beg people to use their imagination. Husted is fighting to keep a seat that required the sitting president to tell supporters to cosplay an election. If this is what Republican confidence looks like in October, Democrats should probably figure out how to run a competent campaign and get out of their own way. That last part is, admittedly, not guaranteed.
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