A top Republican super PAC just canceled its remaining ad buys in North Carolina and started shipping that cash to Kansas and South Carolina. Read that again. The party that controls the White House is playing defense in states it should be able to win with its eyes closed and its hands tied behind its back.
The GOP Is Defending Kansas Now
NBC News reports that Senate Leadership Fund, one of the biggest GOP super PACs, canceled its remaining ad buys in the North Carolina Senate race last week. Natasha Korecki, who wrote the piece, reads that as a sign Democrats are on track to flip the seat. The same group has also begun directing money to Senate contests in deep-red Kansas and South Carolina.
This is what a party does when its internal polling looks like a crime scene. You don't move money into Kansas because you're feeling confident. You move it there because somebody in a windowless room showed you a slide and everybody went quiet.
Steve Kornacki has a piece out this week on how Kansas became a surprise midterm battleground. Surprise is right. Nobody circled this one in August.
Trump's Approval Is in Free Fall, and Not Quietly
Polls show Donald Trump's approval rating tumbling amid growing angst over his handling of the economy and the Iran war. That is a two-front disaster, and both fronts are his own doing.
Key groups are leaving too. Latino voters are abandoning Republicans in droves, and in battleground Texas they are reportedly feeling buyer's remorse. Buyer's remorse is a polite phrase for "I voted for this guy and now I'd like my money back."
Prognosticators have noticed. Race ratings keep shifting in Democrats' direction, which has produced a pile of headlines about what the party could win.
Mississippi, Carville, and the Dream Map
The wish list is getting wild. Can Democrats snag a Senate seat in Kansas? South Carolina? In Texas, Democrat Gina Hinojosa is trying to knock out Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, on top of the Senate contest there.
Then there's James Carville, who posted on X last week: "I've been trying to tell yall: Don't sleep on Mississippi." That's a state Trump carried by 23 points two years ago. Twenty-three. When James Carville is telling you to look at Mississippi, either the map has changed or someone spiked the Democratic Party's coffee.
It's a fun list to read. It's also precisely the sort of list that gets people in trouble.
The Democrat Who Brought Snacks to the Victory Party
Korecki's analysis is the cold shower here. One Democratic national strategist working on races across the country, who wasn't authorized to speak publicly, told NBC that the party needs to pump the brakes. "The Senate is far from secure," the strategist said.
That person wants Democrats to stay aggressive in Maine and Michigan, single-digit presidential states that are not yet secure organizationally. Alaska's Senate race, the strategist added, is also worth sustained investment.
And Democrats have been here before. There was the poll-driven media cycle that painted a rosy picture for Republicans in 2022 and for Democrats in 2024. We all remember how those worked out. The red wave that wasn't. The blue optimism that was. Pick your hangover.
Why the Rosy Picture Has Cracks
The reasons for caution are real. Latino voters are swinging away from Republicans, but there are still big questions about whether they'll turn out for Democrats. The same goes for other critical voting blocs.
Then there's the party's own standing. Despite deep dissatisfaction with Trump and notable energy on the left, the Democratic Party as a whole is still getting low marks. Being less hated than the guy on fire is not a platform.
And there's the group that haunts every strategist's dreams. As polling shows depressed Republicans may sit it out, a pivotal bloc of undecided voters could still come back to the GOP in the end, particularly in red states. Disgust is not the same thing as a vote, and plenty of unhappy people still end up pulling the lever for the devil they know.
Follow the Money, Because Republicans Still Have a Lot of It
Here's the part that should keep Democrats up at night. The strategist quoted above noted that Republicans have an enormous spending advantage in many of the contests that will determine which party wins the majority.
So the picture is strange. The GOP is on the defensive, yanking ads in one state and scrambling to protect others, and it still has the fatter wallet. A party can play defense with a bottomless bank account for a long time. It just has to be willing to burn it all in places it never planned to fight.
That's the whole game for the next four weeks. Can Democrats turn a bad environment for Republicans into actual wins, or does the money and the stubborn undecided pile pull the GOP back from the ledge?
The Dingo Take
"Should they reach for the stars? Or are they getting starry-eyed?" That's the question hanging over Democrats, and the honest answer is that both are true and only one of them wins elections. Reaching is fine. Believing your own press clippings is how you end up giving a concession speech to a room full of people holding untouched sheet cake.
Look at what's actually happening, though. A Republican super PAC is pulling out of North Carolina and heading for Kansas. The president's numbers are sinking over the economy and a war. Latino voters are heading for the exits. That's not a Democratic fantasy. That's the other team's own spending decisions telling you how bad it looks from their side.
So here's the move. Stay aggressive in Maine, Michigan, and Alaska. Keep a few chips on Kansas if the polling holds. And for the love of God, get the people who are mad at Trump to actually show up. Anger doesn't count if it stays home on the couch. Democrats have been handed the best map in years by a party that keeps stepping on its own rake. Don't hand it back.
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