Ken Paxton is running for Senate as Donald Trump's loyal foot soldier, and in a private fundraiser he told a room full of donors that Trump's war is the thing dragging him down. The audio leaked just hours before the President was scheduled to campaign with him in Texas, which is the kind of timing you couldn't script without a lawyer and a prayer.
Paxton Says the Quiet Part Into a Microphone
At a private DC fundraising event last month, Paxton told attendees that his polling troubles against Democrat James Talarico trace back to Operation Epic Fury, the US war with Iran. "It's not tariffs ... It's the war, it's gas prices, it's diesel," he said, according to audio obtained by Axios and reported by the New York Post.
He kept going. "When it's over $6 per gallon for diesel ... people are feeling the pinch," Paxton said, adding that fuel costs "drive up food prices and everything else." He called cost of living concerns "by far our biggest problem" and the reason "we're having a hard time with numbers."
So the man who wants to represent Texas in the Senate has diagnosed his own campaign's illness, and the illness is the guy headlining his rally.
A Donor Asks the Obvious Question
At one point an audience member pointed out the thing that's been rattling around every Republican's skull: Paxton can't actually control gas prices. His response was a masterpiece of political shrugging.
"So many factors in this federal race are uncontrollable," he said. "I don't make the decisions, and I don't ... know what's behind some of the decisions."
Read that again. A candidate for the United States Senate, the body that authorizes wars and holds the purse strings, told donors he doesn't know what's behind some of the decisions. Whose decisions, Ken? He didn't say. Nobody in that room apparently asked a follow-up, which tells you something about fundraisers.
The Third Leak in a Week of Leaks
This is the third major audio leak involving Paxton in recent days. Another clip captured him venting about DC Republicans' purported influence over his campaign. A separate recording had him trashing last month's GOP midterm convention in Dallas, saying it hurt his poll numbers.
It's unclear whether all three came from the same source or the same fundraising event. But somebody in Paxton's orbit is either recording him or keeping very bad company, and either way the man can't stop talking in rooms with phones.
His campaign called the latest leak "a non-story." Their statement argued that Paxton "said what every Texan already knows: gas and diesel prices are too high." Sure. Every Texan also knows who started the war that drove them up, but that part didn't make the press release.
The Numbers Paxton Is Whining About
Talarico currently holds a 3.1 point lead over Paxton in the RealClearPolitics polling average. Texas hasn't elected a Democratic senator since 1988, so a Republican trailing here is the political equivalent of finding your car keys in the freezer. Something has gone badly wrong.
Republicans have been dumping cash into the race to keep Paxton within reach, with $122 million spent last month alone, according to the Texas Tribune. That's a hundred and twenty-two million dollars to keep a safe seat from catching fire.
Some GOP operatives, and John Cornyn himself, have accused Paxton of running a "lazy" campaign. Cornyn would know. Paxton beat him in the May primary runoff.
A Résumé That Was Supposed to Be the Problem
Remember, this is a candidate who arrived with baggage. The Texas legislature impeached Paxton in 2023 on charges including misappropriating public resources, giving preferential treatment to a donor, and obstructing justice. He had extramarital affairs on the public record.
He was also indicted on securities fraud charges back in 2015. That case dragged on until 2024, when he agreed to pay $300,000 in restitution, take legal ethics classes, and perform 100 hours of community service. A man with that file is now telling donors that the thing hurting him is gas prices.
The gas prices are hurting him, to be fair. But when you're fighting off an impeachment and a fraud case, you don't usually get to complain that the war is the headwind.
The Dingo Take
Paxton just confirmed what every pollster, gas station attendant, and grocery shopper already knew.
The war is unpopular because it's expensive, and it's expensive because $6 diesel doesn't care about a press release. His campaign's answer is that Trump is "doing everything he can to bring prices down," which is a bold thing to say about the man whose war put them up. You can't be the guy cleaning up the spill and also the guy holding the bucket.
Here's the part that should keep Republicans awake. Paxton isn't some Democrat's oppo dump or a hostile reporter's gotcha. That's his own voice, in a room full of his own donors, saying the Trump agenda is why he's losing in Texas. When your candidate is privately blaming your President for the polls and publicly begging him to show up and campaign, you don't have a strategy. You have a hostage situation with a podium.
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