Minnesota has not elected a Republican to statewide office since 2006, back when the iPhone was a rumor and "Mike Lindell" was a guy selling pillows instead of a cautionary tale. Now a former NFL sideline reporter who has never held office is within four points of the Democratic lieutenant governor, and the Cook Political Report just moved the race from "likely Democrat" to "lean Democrat." Welcome to the part of the midterms where a safe blue seat starts to look like a very expensive mistake.
A Sideline Reporter Walks Into A Senate Race
The Guardian reports that Democrats are spending this cycle chasing Senate seats in places like Kansas and Texas where they haven't won in decades. Meanwhile, back in Minnesota, the party is suddenly sweating over a seat it assumed was in the bag. Peggy Flanagan, the state's lieutenant governor, leads Republican Michele Tafoya by four points in the most recent Minnesota Star Tribune poll. Four. In a state Democrats have owned statewide for two decades.
Tafoya, 61, spent her career as a sideline reporter for NBC's NFL coverage before becoming a political commentator. She has never run for or held elected office. Flanagan, 47, has done nothing but: organizer, school board, state legislature, lieutenant governor. One of these candidates has a résumé that looks like a Senate campaign. The other has a résumé that looks like a halftime show. And the halftime show is making it close.
The Fraud Scandal Is Doing The Heavy Lifting
Here's the problem for Flanagan, and it isn't ideological. It's her job title. She is the lieutenant governor in Tim Walz's administration, which means she is bolted to a sprawling fraud problem in the state's social services programs. Walz himself decided not to seek a third term after initially saying he would, citing the fraud issue and the political response to it.
That creates an ugly dynamic. With no incumbent on the ballot for governor or Senate, angry voters need somewhere to put their anger, and Flanagan is the nearest available Democrat. She didn't have to personally steal anything. She just had to be standing close to the building when it started burning. Politics has never been fair about that, and it isn't going to start in October.
Tafoya Is Running As Anything But A Republican
Tafoya is a more pragmatic pick than Minnesota Republicans have fielded in past Senate cycles, and she knows exactly what that means. She has cast herself as a pro-choice Republican, though she hasn't spelled out what her position on abortion access actually is. That's a neat trick. Claim the label, skip the details.
She has also broken with the Trump administration on the Iran war after previously supporting it. And when Trump endorsed her, she did not exactly throw a parade. Asked about it, she said, "I heard about that." That is the sound of a candidate holding a presidential endorsement like a casserole dish somebody else brought to the funeral. In the only Senate debate, she wouldn't say whether she'd attend if Trump held a rally in Minnesota. When your answer to "would you show up for the president's rally" is a shrug, you've told voters everything about how you read the room.
Trump Is Not Helping, Which Is Putting It Gently
Trump's approval rating among Minnesotans is at a personal low. His surge of immigration agents into the state, Operation Metro Surge, is still fresh. Two US citizens, Renee Good and Alex Pretti, were killed by federal agents in Minneapolis during that operation earlier this year. That is not a campaign talking point. That is two dead Americans, and it features in ads against Republicans because voters have not forgotten.
Trump has kept attacking the state and its leaders and keeps railing against its Somali population. So Tafoya is trying to win a statewide race in a place where the top of her own party's ticket is radioactive, while also needing the base that loves him. Mike Lindell, the pillow guy and election denier, lost the GOP gubernatorial primary despite a Trump endorsement. Blois Olson, an independent Minnesota political analyst, said some Republican voters were relieved, as in "I have somebody to vote for, and it's not Mike Lindell." That is a low bar. It is also apparently a load-bearing one.
Flanagan's Weak Spots And The Hotdish Offensive
Flanagan is a progressive who supports Medicare for All, and some observers see her as to the left of the statewide electorate. The state isn't deeply blue: the legislature is split, with the House tied and Democrats holding the Senate. She also trails the lead that Amy Klobuchar, now running for governor, has built over her challenger, House Speaker Lisa Demuth. Klobuchar is cruising. Flanagan is grinding.
She's grinding with style, to be fair. Flanagan says she always runs like she's ten points behind, a habit from when she knocked doors most nights even while running unopposed for the legislature. In the primary, polls showed a close race with Rep. Angie Craig, and Flanagan won by nearly 20 points. She is also offering her wild rice hotdish recipe to anyone who donates, which may be the most Minnesotan fundraising pitch ever devised. On Tafoya's suggestion that people take one less trip to Starbucks and keep a stiff upper lip, Flanagan called it "a slap in the face to working people all across Minnesota." Fair. Nobody ever fixed a grocery bill by skipping a latte.
Where Is The Republican Cavalry
Here's a detail worth sitting with. National Republicans have not swooped in to boost Tafoya. Either they don't see Minnesota as a priority, or their money is needed to defend seats in unexpected places, including Kansas. Neither explanation is flattering. If they thought this was a real shot, the checks would be in the mail. If they're stretched thin defending Kansas, then the map is doing the Democrats' work for them.
Olson put it plainly: "There is a path. It's not a wide path, but there is a path for Republicans." He compared it to Democrats in Texas, where optimism is easy and winning is not. Until Republicans actually win statewide in Minnesota, he said, you can't assume they will. Tafoya also did not respond to multiple requests for an interview from the Guardian, which is a funny way to treat the press for a woman who spent a career holding a microphone.
The Dingo Take
Republicans want you to believe Michele Tafoya is a moderate, pro-choice, independent-minded Republican who broke with Trump on Iran. The facts say she hasn't told anyone what her abortion position is, she won't say whether she'd show up to a Trump rally, and she accepted his endorsement like it was a parking ticket. Moderate is a costume. A thin one.
But here's the part that should bother Democrats. This race isn't close because Tafoya is a dazzling candidate. She is close because a fraud scandal gave angry voters a reason to punish the party in power, and because Flanagan is the nearest face to punish. Democrats in Minnesota spent two decades treating statewide wins as an entitlement. Entitlement is a terrible campaign strategy. It also looks great on a concession speech.
So Flanagan is up four, Klobuchar is cruising, Trump is toxic, and two Americans are dead from an immigration surge that voters have not forgotten. Flanagan should win this. She also needs to run like she's ten points behind, which, to her credit, is exactly what she says she does. If she coasts, if the party coasts, a sideline reporter with no political experience and no stated abortion position could end up in the United States Senate. Minnesota, go vote. Bring the hotdish.
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