Trump's Big Gas Price Fix Is 14 Hours of Russian Diesel and a $60 Discount

Four Twenty-Nine a Gallon and Climbing Out of Reach

Here are the numbers, per reporting from The Guardian. Gasoline averages $4.29 a gallon nationally, up more than $1.25 from last year. Diesel sits at $6.30, a jump of nearly 75%. Both are down marginally from a month ago, which is the kind of relief you get when someone stops punching you for a second to reload.

Sharie Smith, a 41-year-old in Toledo, used to fill her Chevy Malibu for $30 to $40 every ten days. Now it costs $50 to $60. She is cutting back on her kids' extracurriculars to cover it. That is what the national average actually looks like. It looks like a mother deciding which part of her children's childhood to drop.

The Russian Diesel Deal Is a Rounding Error With a Windfall Attached

Trump's headline move was temporarily lifting sanctions on Russian diesel imports. The US can now bring in 2.24 million barrels. Sounds like a lot until you learn that it amounts to about 14 hours of American diesel demand, according to Andrew Critchlow of Dow Jones Energy. The global diesel market burns through nearly 30 million barrels a day.

It gets worse. Ed Hirs, an energy fellow at the University of Houston, points out this is not new supply. That fuel was already going somewhere, at a discount, because of sanctions. Now Russia gets to sell it at full value. In Hirs's words, Trump "has given them a huge windfall."

So the pitch is that we will lower your gas prices by giving Vladimir Putin a raise. Great. Love that for us.

Red Dye, Red Flags, and a Sixty-Dollar Savings

Then there is the red-dye diesel order. This is fuel normally reserved for farm equipment and off-road machinery, exempt from federal excise taxes and stained red so everyone can tell it apart. Trump's executive order lets more people use it, and the White House says the 24.4 cent per gallon break will save drivers about $60 on a 250-gallon fill-up.

Sixty dollars. Against a diesel price that has jumped 75%. Hirs says the move actually hurts the farmers it claims to help, because it creates more competition for the same fuel and pushes their prices up. Those same farmers are already eating higher operating costs and have lost China as a major export market thanks to the trade war.

Hence the $8 billion one-time diesel subsidy for harvest season. The administration breaks the market, then mails the victims a coupon.

The War Nobody Wants to Mention at the Pump

The reason energy prices are high across the board is the US war on Iran, which closed the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint through which much of the world's crude oil flows. Middle East refineries were damaged early in the war. Chinese refiners cannot get enough oil to produce extra fuel. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refiners have cut supply further. US refineries are already running at maximum capacity.

Analysts say countries have drained their strategic reserves, and few are releasing more. Critchlow calls the market "very fragile." Jay Hatfield of InfraCap warns that escalating fighting, including a pickup in Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, could push prices higher still. Winter heating demand is coming too.

The experts agree on exactly two things that would actually lower prices: reopen the Strait of Hormuz and negotiate peace between Russia and Ukraine. Notice that neither of those is a social media post.

Voters Are Not Going to Forgive This in Time

A 10 October Politico poll found that even if Trump knocked a full dollar off a gallon of gas, most voters polled would still not be likely to switch to the GOP. That tells you how deep the anger runs. Voters are not just mad about a number on a sign. They are mad about the groceries, the rent, and the feeling that nobody in charge is dealing with it.

Trump posted that diesel prices "will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST!" Experts say voters will not see lower costs by 3 November. Capital letters have yet to refine a single barrel of oil.