Donald Trump flew into a French spa town this week to discuss ending a war in Ukraine that he swore he'd fix in 24 hours, fresh off wrapping up a different war with Iran that he started without telling any of his allies first. The audacity is genuinely staggering. The spa setting is perhaps appropriate, because someone in that room is going to need a very long soak after this.
The Man Who Broke It Is Now Being Asked to Fix It
The G7 summit opened Monday in Evian-les-Bains, France, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the guest list and Russia's war grinding into its fifth year. According to the Associated Press via NPR, Trump told Macron during their bilateral meeting that "now that this (Iran) is finished, we're going to be focusing on that" — meaning Ukraine, the conflict he campaigned on ending within one literal day of taking office.
That was the promise. One day. Trump has since, per the AP, acknowledged it has proved considerably harder than he initially thought. Which, to be fair to reality, is what every single person alive told him before he said it. So here we are, four-plus years into a full-scale Russian invasion, and the man who was going to personally phone-call it out of existence is still working on it.
On Sunday, Trump's 80th birthday, he spoke separately by phone with both Zelenskyy and Putin. The exchange, as the AP notes, suggests Washington hasn't entirely given up on diplomacy. That is the bar we are working with right now. Washington has not entirely given up.
Russia Welcomed the Summit With Missiles
In case the diplomatic mood needed a gut-punch, Russia fired hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles at Ukraine's biggest cities just hours before the G7 summit officially began. The AP reports the barrage killed 11 people and set fire to a religious landmark. That's not a negotiating signal. That's Putin reminding everyone in that French spa town exactly how seriously he's taking their discussions.
French President Emmanuel Macron said on French television that "the right negotiation is one in which Ukraine and Russia are at the table, but with Europeans and Americans present as well." He also said he'd use the summit to persuade Trump to keep supporting Ukraine and increase pressure on Russia. Macron has a lot of work to do, is the point. He's essentially babysitting the most volatile element in the room while also hosting the party.
Meanwhile, Ukraine officially launched EU membership negotiations on Monday, which is genuinely significant. Kyiv sees EU membership as a long-term security anchor once the war ends, since the Trump administration has flatly ruled out NATO membership for Ukraine, and a fair number of other allies are squeamish about it while the shooting continues.
Oh Right, There's Also the Iran Thing
Here is something worth sitting with for a moment. Trump didn't just arrive at this G7 with the Ukraine mess to sort out. He arrived days after ending a 3.5-month war with Iran that he started without consulting the leaders he's now sitting across from at dinner. The AP reports that Trump threatened reprisals against France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom, all NATO members, for their lack of support during the Iran conflict, including floating the idea of drawing down U.S. troops stationed in those countries.
Then he showed up to their summit and they handed him a joint congratulatory statement calling the Iran deal a "diplomatic breakthrough." Canada signed it too. Because what else are you going to do? You can be right, or you can keep American troops on your soil. These are, apparently, mutually exclusive options now.
To their credit, those same European leaders are pushing hard for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen as fast as possible. Rising oil prices from the blockade are hammering their economies. France and the UK have been pushing for a coordinated international mission to restore maritime security. Trump, per the AP, appeared to downplay the need for a large international deployment, telling Macron: "I don't think we're gonna need much help. But I don't think it's a bad idea to have a ship or two up here from a few countries. You'd be a great country to do it." The man has a gift for making a compliment feel like a chore assignment.
What the Rest of the Week Looks Like
Tuesday's agenda, according to the AP, includes a working session with Zelenskyy plus bilateral sit-downs for Trump with the emir of Qatar and the president of the UAE, followed by a cultural performance and dinner with the full G7. The summit also brought in guest nations including Brazil, India, Kenya and South Korea for some sessions.
The G7 itself is France, the United States, Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom. Seven of the most powerful economies on the planet, gathered in a beautiful lakeside town, trying to figure out how to manage two active conflicts while also managing the man who either started or failed to prevent both of them depending on which conflict you're talking about. The agenda is packed. The diplomatic oxygen is thin. Macron is smiling in every photo like a man doing advanced math in his head.
The Dingo Take
Let's be direct about what this G7 summit actually is. It is a gathering of American allies who have spent the last several months being ignored, threatened, lectured at, and occasionally sanctioned by an administration that views multilateral diplomacy roughly the way a toddler views a shared toy. They are now welcoming that same administration back to the table because the alternative, a world where the United States checks out entirely, is worse. That's the calculus. It's not inspiring. It's survival arithmetic.
Trump promising to end the Ukraine war in 24 hours and then showing up three-plus years later saying he'll focus on it now that Iran is "finished" would be funny if people weren't dying. Eleven of them died in missile strikes the morning the summit opened. Putin fired hundreds of drones at civilians while Trump was getting his schedule briefed. The message from Moscow couldn't be clearer: they do not fear this process, they do not respect this table, and they are happy to keep killing while everyone talks.
The optimistic read is that Trump, having apparently closed one war, might actually lean into Ukraine now. The realistic read is that a man who couldn't end a conflict he personally ignited in 3.5 months is not the master dealmaker you want handling a grinding land war with a nuclear power. But here we are, in a spa town in France, hoping for the best while the drones keep flying.
