Maine's Ranked Choice Votes Are In, and Democracy Actually Worked

The Governor's Race: Pingree vs. The Tough-on-Crime Lobbyist

On the Democratic side, Hanna Pingree emerged from the ranked-choice tabulation as the party's nominee for governor, and according to NBC News she enters the general election as the clear favorite. Maine is not exactly hostile terrain for her — Kamala Harris won the state by about 7 points in 2024, and the political environment right now is not trending toward rewarding the party currently setting the federal government on fire.

She'll face Republican Bobby Charles, a former naval intelligence officer who once ran the Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs under George W. Bush. He has leaned hard on that resume, packaging himself as a law-and-order candidate while running against what he calls Maine's 'woke policies.' In other words, a Bush-era Washington lobbyist is now the anti-establishment outsider candidate. The branding is doing a lot of heavy lifting here.

Charles is not without credentials, to be clear. Intelligence and federal law enforcement experience is a real thing you can point to. But 'former lobbyist who worked for the Bush administration' is a specific flavor of Republican that tends to get eaten alive in a MAGA primary, which means he had to be running against someone even the base found unacceptable. The fact that he won tells you something about the field, not necessarily about him.

The Real Prize: Maine's 2nd District Is a Genuine Toss-Up

Here is where it gets interesting. Maine's 2nd Congressional District is one of the strangest pieces of real estate in American politics. Democrats have held it for years, but only because Rep. Jared Golden was a genuinely unusual politician — a Democrat who voted like he read the room in a district Trump carried by 9 points in 2024. Nine points. That is not a purple district. That is a red district with a Democrat who was good at his job.

Golden retired. And now, as NBC News reports, Republicans see this as one of their best opportunities to flip a House seat this fall. Significant money is expected from both parties, which is a polite way of saying this race is about to get absolutely buried in attack ads.

Democrats nominated Matt Dunlap, the state auditor and former secretary of state, who ran as a progressive and campaigned on Medicare for All. Dunlap actually finished second in first-choice votes but came back to win narrowly in the ranked-choice tabulation over Joe Baldacci, a state senator and son of a former governor. The House Democrats' campaign arm and the top House Democratic super PAC had backed Baldacci. The establishment lost. The progressive won. Make of that what you will going into a race in a district Trump carried by 9 points.

Jordan Wood, who previously served as chief of staff to former Rep. Katie Porter, was eliminated during the ranked-choice count. That's three distinct lanes of the Democratic Party that ran in this thing, which at least proves ranked choice voting earns its existence.

'Trump Before Trump Was Popular' Is Running for Congress

Paul LePage secured the Republican primary for the 2nd District without needing a ranked-choice runoff, and he did so with Donald Trump's backing. LePage served two terms as Maine's governor and is not a new face in this state. He is well known. He is formidable. He has also, per NBC News, described himself as 'Donald Trump before Donald Trump became popular,' which is either the most effective piece of political branding of the 2026 cycle or a confession, depending on your point of view.

LePage's critics point to a long history of controversial comments that have generated headlines throughout his political career in Maine. His supporters point to the same comments and call them refreshingly honest. This is the defining split in American politics right now, laid out in one man's resume.

The combination of LePage's name recognition, Trump's endorsement, and a district the president won by 9 points makes this race genuinely competitive. Dunlap's progressive platform — Medicare for All being the centerpiece — is either a bold bet that the political environment has shifted enough to make it viable, or it's the kind of positioning that gives Republican opposition researchers a reason to get out of bed in the morning.

Ranked Choice Voting: Still Working, Despite Best Efforts

Maine is one of the only places in the country that uses ranked-choice voting for major elections, and every single cycle it produces the same debate: did the right person win, or did the system produce a weird result that the most-votes-getter should be screaming about? This cycle, Dunlap's come-from-behind win in the congressional primary will fuel that conversation again. He finished second on first-choice votes. He won the nomination.

That is actually how ranked-choice voting is supposed to work. The idea is that a candidate who is broadly acceptable to more voters than any alternative should win, even if they weren't the top first choice. Whether you think that's more democratic or less democratic probably depends on how your preferred candidate fared. In Maine's case, the system resolved a three-way split in the Democratic primary and produced a clear nominee. The process worked. The results may be debated all the way to November.