SpaceX just filed its first earnings report as a public company, beat its revenue numbers, and still managed to send investors into a full meltdown. The culprit: $15.8 billion in a single quarter spent building out Grok, the AI chatbot that even Elon Musk's most devoted fans would struggle to describe as a world-beater.
The Numbers That Broke the Party
Let's run the tape. SpaceX posted quarterly revenue that surpassed analyst expectations, most of it coming from Starlink. People cheered. The stock surged 9% during regular trading hours on Tuesday. Everyone felt smart.
Then the capital expenditure figures landed. According to Bloomberg News data cited by NBC News, SpaceX spent $15.8 billion on AI-related capex through its xAI unit, which operates the Grok service. Analysts had expected $13.09 billion. Instead of $13 billion, the number was nearly $16 billion. And that AI spending alone accounted for most of the company's total $18.4 billion quarterly capital expenditure bill.
After the closing bell, the stock fell 6.5%. The 9% gain evaporated. Investors who spent the day feeling like geniuses spent the evening Googling 'how to sell after hours.'
A Trillion Dollars, Gone, Then Mostly Back, Then Wobbling
SpaceX's IPO on June 12 was, by any measure, a spectacle. The company immediately became a multitrillion-dollar entity. Then, as NBC News reports, it shed roughly $1 trillion in market value almost as quickly, amid concerns about insider stock sales and broader anxieties about the pace of AI spending across the industry.
As of Tuesday, the company still carries a market cap north of $1 trillion, which means it remains one of the most valuable companies on the planet. There was also a modest sugar rush when SpaceX announced a new partnership with Nvidia on a future satellite project. But the AI spending figure hung over all of it like a thundercloud that refuses to move.
Double the previous quarter. That's the kicker. $15.8 billion on AI capex was not just above forecast, it was roughly double what SpaceX spent the quarter before. That's not a rounding error. That's a strategy.
The Lockup Expires Tomorrow and Nobody's Pretending That's Fine
Here is where things get structurally uncomfortable. Only 5% of SpaceX's 13.9 billion shares are currently trading on the open market. Elon Musk holds approximately 42%. The rest of the major shareholders have been locked out of selling under the standard post-IPO lockup agreement.
That lockup expires Wednesday. At that point, up to 20% of total insider-held shares can hit the open market. More supply, same or reduced demand, lower price. This is not a controversial prediction; this is how stock markets work. The question is how far the price drops and how fast.
Investor anxiety about this moment has been building since the IPO. The AI spending report did not calm anyone down. If anything, it handed people who were already nervous a new and very specific reason to panic.
At Least One Guy Is Totally Chill About All This
To be fair, NBC News found a retail investor who is taking the long view. Forde Todd, 20, received three shares of SpaceX stock through the IPO, then bought and sold additional shares on the open market. He is holding his IPO shares regardless of the price action.
"I'm in it for the love of the game," Todd told NBC News. "I'm in it for SpaceX." He also noted, with a conviction that is either visionary or deeply concerning depending on your perspective, that "everybody is going to want a part in the space economy."
Forde Todd is 20 years old and holding SpaceX stock through a $15.8 billion quarterly AI spending report and a lockup expiration. The man has either figured something out that Wall Street hasn't, or he is about to learn a very expensive lesson about the difference between believing in a company and understanding its financials. We genuinely wish him well.
The Tesla Merger Rumors Are Still Out There
One more thing NBC News flagged that deserves attention: speculation is growing that SpaceX could attempt to merge with Tesla. The idea here is that a combined entity would hand Musk even more centralized control over what is already a sprawling, interlocking technology empire spanning rockets, satellites, AI, electric vehicles, and social media.
No deal has been announced. But the speculation itself is notable, and not just for the business implications. Musk already sits at the intersection of more critical infrastructure than any private citizen arguably should. A SpaceX-Tesla merger would make that situation considerably more extreme.
Keep that one in the back of your mind. It'll come back around.
The Dingo Take
Fifteen point eight billion dollars on AI in a single quarter. To put that in perspective, NASA's entire annual budget is around $25 billion. SpaceX spent more than half of NASA's yearly allocation in ninety days building out a chatbot that most people use to generate mildly edgy content that other AI companies won't touch. This is the company the market just valued at over a trillion dollars.
The structure of this whole situation is worth sitting with. A company where 95% of the shares aren't freely trading goes public, immediately becomes one of the most valuable entities on earth, then proceeds to double its AI spending quarter over quarter while the lockup clock ticks down to zero. Institutional investors are worried. Retail investors are nervous. And the man at the center of it all also controls the Pentagon's satellite communications, runs a social media platform, and spent the better part of a year running a federal austerity operation out of a government building before it collapsed into a legal fiasco. This is the person whose capital allocation decisions are now moving markets.
Watch the lockup expiration Wednesday. If insider selling hits heavy and the stock craters, the broader conversation about what SpaceX is actually worth, and what Musk is actually building, is going to get very loud very fast. And the answer to that question matters well beyond anyone's portfolio.
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