Schumer Polls 5 Points Worse Than Trump in New York, Which Is a Feat

The Number Nobody at Schumer HQ Wants to Read

Let's start with the part that should make a Democratic strategist stare into the middle distance. Only 30 percent of New Yorkers approve of Schumer's job performance. Fifty percent disapprove. Another 20 percent aren't sure, which is its own kind of insult after four decades of him being on the ballot.

Trump, a man who has not carried New York in three tries, sits at 35 percent approval and 57 percent disapproval in the same poll. So the guy the state loathes is ahead of the guy the state elected. In New York. Where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans 6 million to 3.4 million.

The poll surveyed 900 likely voters from Oct. 3 to 5 and carries a margin of error of 3.3 points. That margin does not cover a five-point gap this ugly. You cannot round your way out of this one.

Hochul Is Winning, But Nobody Is Throwing a Parade

The top-line result is fine for the incumbent. Hochul leads Blakeman 52 percent to 40 percent, with 8 percent undecided. That tracks with other independent polls showing her ahead by anywhere from 11 to 19 points. Republican-aligned polls claim the race is much tighter, which is what Republican-aligned polls always claim.

But read past the top line. Only 40 percent of voters approve of her job performance. Forty-six percent disapprove. She is winning because the alternative is a Republican in New York, not because anyone is in love with her.

Her cushion comes almost entirely from the party faithful. Among Democrats she leads 84 percent to 8 percent. That is a machine doing what machines do. Take that away and the picture gets uncomfortable fast.

Independents Have Left the Building

Here's the real story. Among independents, Blakeman leads Hochul 55 percent to 34 percent. That is a 21-point blowout in a group of roughly 3.4 million unaffiliated voters, a block nearly as large as the entire state Republican rolls.

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, called it "a notable contrast with other Emerson statewide polls this cycle, in which independent voters have generally favored the Democratic candidate." Translation: in other states, the unaffiliated voters have been breaking toward Democrats this year. In New York, they are breaking away from the governor.

That should worry Hochul even with a double-digit lead. Independents are the voters who decide what an electorate is feeling before the feeling shows up in the final tally. Right now they are feeling Blakeman, which is a sentence nobody in Albany expected to type.

Meet the Challenger, Who Is Also Not Young

Blakeman, 71, is the elected Nassau County executive on Long Island. Hochul, 68, is seeking her second full term after taking the top job when Andrew Cuomo resigned. So this is a contest between two people who have each been collecting government paychecks since before some of their voters were born, fighting over a $250,000-a-year, four-year gig.

Election Day is Nov. 3. The polls say Hochul wins comfortably. The polls also say she is doing it with a mediocre approval rating and a revolt brewing among the voters who aren't contractually obligated to vote for her.

The Only Popular Guy Is the Democratic Socialist

Want to know who is polling best among New York's elected officials? First-year Mayor Zohran Mamdani. Forty-seven percent approve, 41 percent disapprove, and 13 percent are undecided. That is a better net rating than the governor and a dramatically better one than the state's senior senator.

Meanwhile, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has been stumping upstate, which plenty of observers read as groundwork for a run at Schumer's seat when it comes open in 2028. After seeing a 30 percent approval number, you can understand why she might feel optimistic.

The party establishment has spent years warning that democratic socialists can't win broad support. The data in front of us suggests the establishment has a branding problem of its own.