Donald Trump spent years calling mail-in voting "inherently corrupt." Now, with Democrats holding a 54-30 edge in early and mail ballots cast so far, he's recording videos from the Oval Office begging his own supporters to vote by mail. Funny how fraud becomes a patriotic duty the minute your side is losing the early count.
The Numbers Are Ugly for Republicans
According to the New York Post, citing state election data compiled by TargetSmart and NBC News, Democrats make up 54% of early and mail-in voters so far. Republicans are at 30%. Independents and "other" voters account for the remaining 16%.
That is not a gap. That is a canyon with a gift shop.
And the edge shows up in the marquee Senate races, including several in states that Republicans are supposed to be able to win while half-asleep.
Red States Are Looking Awfully Pink
Start with Texas, where Democratic state Rep. James Talarico is facing Attorney General Ken Paxton. The Democratic share of early voters stands at 62-32. Yes, in Texas. Paxton, a man who has spent much of his career dodging legal consequences, may now have to dodge a bigger problem.
In Iowa, where Rep. Ashley Hinson is in a tough race against Democrat Josh Turek, registered Democrats lead the early vote 57-29, with 14% from "other." In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and former Rep. Mike Rogers are battling it out, and the Democratic edge there is 55-36 based on voter registration.
Then there's Maine, where Susan Collins is trying to fend off Democrat Troy Jackson. Democrats lead 55-19 in early ballots, with more than a quarter of the ballots coming from "other" voters. When your lead in a state is 36 points and a quarter of the pool is still unaccounted for, you do not get to call it a toss-up. You get to call a priest.
Before You Panic or Celebrate, Read the Fine Print
Here's the thing, and it matters: none of this data shows how anyone actually voted. It shows who registered as what and who showed up or sent in a ballot. A registered Democrat can still vote Republican, and in some of these states, plenty will.
University of Kentucky political scientist Stephen Voss put it plainly. "We know the Democrats have the enthusiasm advantage," he said. But what remains to be seen is whether the early numbers point to a predicted wave of new voters or merely "upper status voters who always vote anyway."
That's the honest caveat. Democrats have historically leaned toward early and mail voting, so some of this is just habit. The question is whether it's more than habit.
Four Years Ago Looks Different From Today
One way to test that is to compare against 2022. In Nebraska, where Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts faces independent Dan Osborne, the Democratic edge in early voting is 45-38 now, up from 44-41 at this point four years ago. That's a modest shift, but it's moving in one direction.
The Nebraska secretary of state's data adds texture. Among Democrats who have voted so far, 89% also voted in 2022 and 2024, while 10% are new. Among Republicans, 91% are returning voters and just 7% are new. So Democrats are pulling in slightly more fresh faces, but it's mostly the regulars showing up early.
Virginia, meanwhile, is a different story. There are 519,000 early ballots in, compared to 260,000 at this point in 2022. That is a doubling. In left-leaning Fairfax County, the total also doubled. Whatever is happening there, it isn't just the usual suspects clearing their throats.
Suddenly Mail Voting Is Great, Folks
Now for the part that deserves its own sitcom. Trump has repeatedly blasted mail voting and pushed supporters toward in-person voting on Election Day, calling the practice "inherently corrupt." This is a man who has spent years telling his voters that mailing a ballot is basically handing it to a stranger in a trench coat.
But look at the new message. In a video last weekend, Trump told supporters from the Oval Office: "If your state has early voting, do not wait. Go out and vote. Vote early, vote by mail, or vote in person on Election Day, November 3rd, so we can defeat the radical left 'Dumocrats' in a midterm victory that is too big to rig."
He also told voters to "pretend I'm on the ballot." Pretend. He's asking people to cosplay as voters in a world where he's on the ballot, because apparently the actual ballot features people who aren't him and that's a hard sell.
The Dingo Take
Remember the general who spends all winter telling his army that the river is poisoned, then wakes up to find the enemy already camped on the far bank and screams at everyone to start swimming? That's the Republican early voting strategy in a nutshell. For years the party's top man torched the very method of voting that Democrats have been quietly mastering. Now he's flailing for a U-turn on camera.
The cynicism is almost impressive. "Inherently corrupt" turned into "vote by mail" without so much as a press release or an apology. No explanation. No reckoning with the fact that he spent a decade teaching his own voters to distrust the mechanism he now needs them to use. If it was corrupt then, what changed? Oh right. The count.
Be careful, though, because we don't know how any of these people voted, and early enthusiasm is not the same as a landslide. Democrats have been burned by premature victory laps before. But when your side's own leader is begging people to mail in ballots while insisting the win will be "too big to rig," you have told us exactly what the internal numbers look like. Nobody says "too big to rig" when they're feeling good about the margin.
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