Control of Congress is on the ballot Tuesday, and the map reads like a prank. The Senate hangs on whether Democrats can win deep-red Texas, where Republicans nominated Ken Paxton, plus Ohio and Iowa, states Donald Trump carried comfortably. It is a coin flip, and the coin is sitting in places that were supposed to be gone for good.
The Map Is Absurd, and So Are the Stakes
Per Fox News, voters will decide all 435 House seats, 35 Senate races, and governor's races in 39 states. Nine states sit at the center of the fight for power in Washington and the state capitals. Fox's own framing is that Senate control is a coin flip and that the Democratic path runs through Trump country.
Think about that for a second. The party in power, holding the White House, is fighting to keep a majority in states it won by double digits. A race in Texas is deadlocked, and Trump is being pulled back into a state he won reliably.
CBS News notes that the results will not all arrive at once. Polls start closing at 7 p.m. ET and keep closing in waves through the night. Alaska, with a closely watched Senate race, doesn't close until 1 a.m. ET, and its ranked-choice ballots won't be fully tallied until November 18. So if you plan to go to bed knowing who controls the Senate, bring snacks and low expectations.
Texas: Paxton, Talarico and a State That Forgot How to Lose
Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton is battling Democratic state Rep. James Talarico for the seat held by outgoing Republican John Cornyn. Texas hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988. That is not a streak, it is a geological era.
Fox describes the contest as pitting Paxton's conservative appeal and history of legal controversies against Talarico's campaign focused on political change. "History of legal controversies" is doing the work of a seventeen-person moving crew in that sentence. This is a man who has spent years being a legal controversy, and Republican voters nominated him anyway.
Gov. Greg Abbott, meanwhile, is seeking a historic fourth term against Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa. Border security, education and the economy are shaping that fight. Polls close in Texas at 9 p.m. ET, with some areas in the Central time zone closing an hour earlier.
Ohio and Iowa: Two States Democrats Weren't Supposed to Be Talking About
In Ohio, former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is trying to claw his way back against Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed to JD Vance's old seat and has never won an election for it. Husted brought in former NFL coach Jon "Chucky" Gruden for campaign appearances, which tells you something about where the energy in that campaign is coming from. Polls close at 7:30 p.m. ET.
The Ohio governor's race to replace term-limited Republican Mike DeWine pits Vivek Ramaswamy against Democrat Amy Acton. Ramaswamy's campaign recently yanked an ad featuring Acton's estranged mother after criticism from fellow Republicans, including DeWine. When your own governor tells you an ad is too much, the ad was too much.
Iowa is the other head-scratcher. Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson faces Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek for the seat Joni Ernst is vacating, and Democratic state Auditor Rob Sand is running against Republican Zach Lahn for the open governor's mansion after Kim Reynolds' retirement. Iowa has drifted right, but it once sent Tom Harkin to the Senate for decades, and Democrats are betting the state remembers. Polls close at 9 p.m. ET.
Michigan, Georgia and the Fights That Will Decide Who Has the Gavel
Michigan's open Senate seat could be pivotal. Former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers faces Democrat Abdul El-Sayed to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters. Rogers and his Republican allies have pushed allegations about El-Sayed's family's purported ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, citing old social media posts by his half-sister. El-Sayed has denied any connection and publicly disavowed the group, and independent fact-checkers have found no evidence of his personal affiliation. So the attack is built on someone else's old tweets. Bold strategy.
The same state has a governor's race between Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and Republican Rep. John James. Polls close at 8 p.m. ET, with some areas an hour later.
In Georgia, Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff defends his seat against Republican Rep. Mike Collins in a state Trump narrowly carried in 2024. Trump held a rally for Collins on October 24 in Perry. The open governor's race to replace Brian Kemp matches Republican businessman Rick Jackson against former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. Georgia's polls close first, at 7 p.m. ET, so it's where the night starts.
Wisconsin, Maine, and Everywhere Else the Night Could Break
Wisconsin's open governor's race puts Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany against Democratic Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, who beat progressive state Rep. Francesca Hong in a crowded primary. The fight is over taxes, public spending and education as voters pick a successor to Gov. Tony Evers. Polls close at 9 p.m. ET.
CBS lists Maine, Florida, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania among the 8 p.m. ET closings, and North Carolina joins Ohio at 7:30. Kansas and Michigan close at 9. The California billionaire tax measure is also on the ballot, because a midterm without a ballot measure that makes rich people scream isn't a California midterm.
As for how to follow it, CBS starts its Election 2026 coverage at 7 p.m. ET with Tony Dokoupil and Norah O'Donnell, and "The Nerd Show" kicks off at 5 p.m. ET for those who want the numbers raw. Fox is running its own coverage, and you can pick your poison.
The Dingo Take
Fox News says Senate control is a coin flip and that the Democratic path runs through Trump country. Read that again. The outlet most loyal to the president is telling its own viewers that the party in power is defending ground in Texas, Ohio and Iowa, states Trump won comfortably, and that a Democratic win in any of them could flip the chamber. Nobody forced Fox to write that. The map did.
The facts on the ground are that Republicans nominated Ken Paxton, a man whose legal controversies are so well-documented that Fox itself gestures at them with a straight face, in a state that hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1988. They appointed Husted in Ohio and handed him a Chucky Gruden cameo as a campaign strategy. They are running an ad-pulling, DeWine-annoying gubernatorial campaign in the same state. This is not a party operating from strength. This is a party hoping the fundamentals bail it out of its candidate choices.
Maybe the Republicans hold everything. Texas has been a brick wall for Democrats for decades, and anyone who tells you they know how this ends is selling something. But if you want to know how the night is going, don't watch for a wave. Watch whether the "safe" states stay quiet. If Texas and Ohio are still undecided when you're brushing your teeth, the coin has already landed.
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