A dual U.S.-Colombian citizen, lawyer, and first-time candidate who goes by 'The Tiger' just won the Colombian presidency by less than one percentage point, and his first major policy promise is a 90-day U.S.-backed airstrike campaign against guerrilla groups. Donald Trump, naturally, is thrilled. Cities are burning.
One Point Separates Colombia From Its Future
With nearly all ballots counted, Abelardo de la Espriella pulled 49.66 percent of the vote to leftist Senator Ivan Cepeda's 48.70 percent, according to CBS News. A few hundred thousand votes. In a country of 52 million people. That's your mandate.
De la Espriella, 47, has never held public office. What he does have: a law degree, dual citizenship, a campaign uniform that's literally the Colombian national soccer jersey, and the enthusiastic endorsement of the most powerful man in Washington. He delivered his victory speech from behind thick bulletproof glass in Barranquilla, which tells you something about the security situation he's inheriting and about how many people already want him dead.
His opponent, Senator Ivan Cepeda, 63, has stopped short of conceding. 'Once the count has been completed and its final result is known,' he told supporters carefully. The Associated Press points out that no recount has ever overturned a presidential election result in Colombia. The math isn't there. But Cepeda clearly isn't ready to hand 'The Tiger' a clean win just yet.
Trump Called It, Rubio Sent the Press Release
Trump's reaction, posted almost immediately after results came in, was characteristically measured and sober: 'He Won, BIG!' CBS News reports. One percentage point. Big.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a statement saying Colombia's 'best days are ahead' and that Washington 'looks forward to working closely with your incoming administration.' That's the diplomatic version of Trump's post, which is to say it's the same sentiment dressed in a blazer. The administration wanted this result, and they got it.
De la Espriella is a dual U.S.-Colombian national, which already made him a lightning rod during the campaign. The right wing across the Americas celebrated alongside Trump, with congratulations flooding in from leaders who share his 'iron fist' security philosophy. This is a pattern. Brazil, Argentina, El Salvador. The region is doing something, and Washington is cheering every step.
What 'The Tiger' Actually Plans to Do
During the campaign, De la Espriella told AFP he would scrap existing peace talks with dissident armed groups and replace them with a 90-day blitz of U.S.-backed airstrikes. That's the plan. Bomb first, govern later.
This is not a small thing to blow up. Colombia signed a landmark peace accord with FARC guerrillas a decade ago, and CBS News notes that much of the country has genuinely prospered in the years since. Infrastructure built, communities stabilized, some of the most violent chapters in Colombian history put to rest. De la Espriella's position is essentially that all of that was a mistake and what the country really needs is to start dropping bombs again.
Here's the uncomfortable truth he's responding to, though: the peace didn't hold everywhere. Cartels and dissident splinter groups still control pockets of the country. Cocaine exports are at an all-time high. Colombia remains one of the most economically unequal nations in the world. Cepeda's left had four years in power under outgoing President Gustavo Petro and the inequality didn't close. De la Espriella didn't invent the frustration he's riding. He just found a very aggressive way to monetize it.
The Streets Didn't Take It Quietly
As the results came in Sunday night, thousands of protesters gathered in Colombia's major cities. In Cali, CBS News reports, some burned American flags while others wielded steel bars and clashed with riot police, who responded with teargas. In Bogota, demonstrators burned tires and threw bricks at officers.
'We've already had many years of right-wing governments that care only about making the rich richer,' a 26-year-old student named Natalia told AFP. She's not wrong about the historical pattern: De la Espriella's win marks a return to right-wing rule in a country where the right has governed for all but four of the past 200 years. The Petro experiment was the exception. This is the rule reasserting itself.
On the other side, De la Espriella supporters poured into the streets in their canary-yellow soccer jerseys, waving flags and blowing horns. 'I believe a lot in the country, I believe a lot in freedom,' a 30-year-old supporter named Daniela Oliveros told reporters in Barranquilla. The country is split almost exactly down the middle, separated by less than a single percentage point, and both halves went outside Sunday night. One half to celebrate. The other half to fight.
His Victory Speech vs. His Campaign Promises
De la Espriella used his victory speech to play peacemaker. 'Mine will be an absolutely democratic government and a guarantor of freedom and institutional order,' he said. 'I will govern for all Colombians, for those who voted for me and for those who chose another candidate.' Warm words. Classic stuff.
Then, in the same speech, he turned to Cepeda and warned him not to even think about 'stoking violence,' adding: 'The Tiger can still bite you harder than he has bitten you at the ballot box.' That's a threat directed at the man who just lost a presidential election by a rounding error. The unity tour lasted about four sentences.
This campaign was violent before it was over. CBS News notes it was marred by guerrilla bomb attacks and the murder of a leading conservative presidential candidate during the race. De la Espriella didn't cause that. But he's now inheriting a country that is volatile, divided, and watching him very closely to see whether 'The Tiger' who vowed airstrikes has any interest in actually governing.
The Dingo Take
Let's be honest about what just happened here. The United States government got the Colombian president it wanted. A dual citizen, lawyer, and political outsider ran on a platform of bombing peace talks into dust, won by the thinnest possible margin, and immediately received a celebratory post from Donald Trump. Washington's fingerprints are all over this one, and the people burning American flags in Cali understood that perfectly well before anyone in a think tank wrote a white paper about it.
The 'iron fist' playbook is winning elections across Latin America right now, and it's not hard to understand why. When cartels control your neighborhood and cocaine is leaving your country at record levels and inequality has been a fact of life for two centuries, the guy promising airstrikes sounds like action. The guy promising structural reform sounds like your last four presidents. De la Espriella read that room correctly. Whether he can actually govern it is a completely different question, and a one-point mandate against a opponent who hasn't conceded is not exactly a running start.
The decade-old peace process that actually made parts of Colombia safer is now on the chopping block so a first-time politician can prove to Washington he means business. If the airstrikes come, and the dissident groups regroup, and the body count climbs, Trump will have moved on to the next thing by then. He already got his 'He Won, BIG!' moment. Colombia gets to live with the rest of it.
