Hurricane Simon is sitting at 155 mph, two miles per hour shy of a Category 5, and it is aimed at the west-central coast of Mexico. A Canadian tourist in Puerto Vallarta, asked about his plan, said he would "just stay in the hotel and look out the window hopefully." Folks, that is the entire emergency strategy of a man who has not read the bulletin.
Two MPH From the Top Shelf
CBS News reported that the National Hurricane Center in Miami said Saturday that Simon strengthened into a powerful Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph. A Category 5 starts at 157 mph. That is a rounding error with a body count potential.
The center expects Simon to approach Mexico's west-central coast on Sunday as a major hurricane, which means Category 3 or stronger, with winds of at least 111 mph. On Saturday the storm was about 65 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, creeping north at 5 mph.
Five miles per hour. That is a brisk walk. A slow-moving monster is worse than a fast one, because it sits on top of you and keeps raining.
Thirty Inches of Rain on Steep Terrain
Here's the part that should make everyone put down the phone. Forecasters say Simon could dump 10 to 20 inches of rain over parts of southwestern Mexico, with some areas in Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco catching up to 30 inches.
The hurricane center did not bury the lede on this one. "This rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain," it warned. Steep terrain plus 30 inches of water is not a weather event. It is a slow-motion avalanche made of mud.
Then there is the storm surge. The center expects dangerous surge "along the immediate coast near and to the east of where the center makes landfall," with large and destructive waves riding on top. The wind gets the headlines. The water does the killing.
Puerto Vallarta Boards Up the Windows
Jalisco state suspended classes on Monday in 22 coastal municipalities and started evacuating dozens of people from at-risk areas. Officials also asked the tourism sector in Puerto Vallarta, a hugely popular destination for U.S. tourists, to get workers and visitors into shelters or safe zones.
By Saturday morning, convenience stores, hotels and other businesses were boarding up their windows. Few people walked the streets under overcast skies. The hurricane center urged residents to rush preparations to completion "before conditions deteriorate later tonight."
That is the sound of a government doing the boring, unglamorous work of keeping people alive. Evacuate early, close the schools, move the tourists. Nobody gets a medal for the disaster that didn't happen, which is exactly why it matters.
Free Peanuts and Hope
Not everyone was in full crisis mode. Jesús Gómez stood outside a shop handing out free samples of candied peanuts to passersby. "Let's hope it doesn't hit us, right?" he said. "We'll be working as usual throughout the day, but when Civil Protection officials come and tell us we need to close, then we'll close and take shelter until the storm passes."
There is something deeply human and slightly unhinged about a man offering peanut samples while a Category 4 hurricane lines up. He is not wrong to wait for the official word. He is also very much running a small business in the shadow of a monster.
Then there is Ed Currie, the Canadian tourist with five more days on his trip. "Just stay in the hotel and look out the window hopefully," he said. "I just don't know what to expect." Sir, the National Hurricane Center would like a word. Several, actually, and they are all in the bulletin.
The Pacific Is Having a Season
Simon does not arrive alone. It comes right on the heels of Hurricane Polo, which slammed Mexico last week as a Category 2 storm before reaching the southwestern U.S. and bringing heavy flooding there.
The contrast across the continent is stark. The Atlantic saw just its first named hurricane of the season this week, with Isaias. The Pacific has been wildly active, one storm stacking on top of another before the last one has dried out.
Forecasters did offer one sliver of good news. Simon could weaken rapidly if its core moves fully onshore after landfall. That helps the wind. It does nothing for the 30 inches of rain already loaded into the sky.
The Dingo Take
Who benefits when a Category 4 hurricane aims at a resort town? Nobody, except the people with a lot of money tied up in keeping that resort town looking cheerful until the last possible minute. Tourism is the engine of Puerto Vallarta, and every hotel owner knows that a refund costs more than a shuttered window. Credit where it is due: Jalisco officials asked the tourism sector to get workers and visitors into shelters early. That is the incentive structure working the right way around, for once.
Here's the thing that should bother you. The warning system worked. The bulletin was specific, the lead time was real, and the state moved on schools and evacuations before the wind arrived. And still there is a tourist planning to watch the apocalypse through a hotel window like it is a nature documentary. Information is not the same as understanding, and no forecast can fix a man who has decided the storm is a view.
Watch the rainfall numbers, not the wind speed. Everyone will fixate on whether Simon tips over into Category 5 by two miles per hour. The mudslides on steep terrain do not care about the category. They care about 30 inches of water and gravity, and gravity has never once missed.
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