Xavier Becerra was an afterthought, a punchline, a candidate his own party quietly hoped would go away. Then the guy who was supposed to beat him imploded over sexual misconduct allegations, and now Becerra is about to be governor of the largest state in America. Congratulations on the luckiest political comeback of the decade, sir. Here's your housing crisis.
The Candidate Democrats Wanted to Drop
Let's start with how Becerra got here, because the answer is mostly timing and a rival's catastrophe. According to The Guardian, his campaign stalled almost as soon as it launched. First it was eclipsed by the prospect of a Kamala Harris run, then it was overlooked while Democrats scoured the state for literally anyone else.
Becerra himself says it plainly. "When we started this campaign, we were the underdogs," he told a Hollywood rally on the eve of the election. "Actually we were an afterthought, maybe even a punchline." That is a remarkable thing for a frontrunner to say about himself, and it also happens to be true.
The panic inside the party was real. California's nonpartisan primary meant too many middling Democrats splitting the vote could have let two Republicans advance to the general election. Party insiders were, in short, suggesting Becerra should drop out. He didn't.
Right Place, Right Time, Allegedly a Skill
Then came Eric Swalwell. The congressman's gubernatorial campaign imploded amid allegations of sexual misconduct, and just like that, the afterthought became the frontrunner. Becerra spent the rest of a turbulent primary brawling with Tom Steyer, the progressive who backed Medicare for All.
Longtime California political columnist George Skelton once described Becerra as someone who "excels at being in the right place at the right time." That is either the most backhanded compliment in California politics or the most accurate job description. Probably both.
To be fair, you still have to be standing there when the lightning strikes. Plenty of candidates would have taken the hint and gone home. Staying put when everyone wants you gone is its own kind of political talent, even if luck did the heavy lifting.
A Résumé That Actually Reads Like a Résumé
Whatever you think of the path, the credentials are not nothing. Becerra is the son of Mexican immigrants who grew up in a one-room Sacramento apartment with three sisters, then went to Stanford Law School. He was elected to Congress in 1992 at 34 and served 12 terms representing central Los Angeles.
As a member of House Democratic leadership, he helped draft and pass the Affordable Care Act. He then returned to Sacramento to become the first Latino attorney general of California, succeeding Kamala Harris. During Trump's first term he sued the administration more than 100 times. After that came a stint as Biden's health secretary in the middle of the pandemic.
His whole pitch is a gauzy promise to restore the "California dream" that let a kid from that one-room apartment end up here. It's a nice story. It's also a story about a California that, for most people living there now, no longer exists.
Trump, Trump, Trump, and Also Rent
Becerra's campaign website lists "fighting Donald Trump" as his second priority, right behind healthcare. His Republican opponent, Steve Hilton, hammered him for it in their lone debate. "All you ever say is 'Trump, Trump, Trump,'" Hilton charged. "That's nothing but an insult to every Californian who is desperate for something to change in this state."
Here's the thing. Hilton has a point about the priorities, and Trump keeps making Becerra's case for him anyway. This week, the president told a Nebraska crowd, perhaps in jest but with enough specificity to rattle nerves, that Iran might "take out" Los Angeles and San Diego. A sitting president musing about two American cities getting bombed. At a rally. For laughs.
"You don't need to have a president pile on and say, 'I don't care about you. If you get bombed, who cares?'" Becerra told reporters in Los Angeles. When your opponent's best attack is that you talk about Trump too much, and Trump keeps giving you reasons to talk about Trump, you're going to keep talking about Trump.
The Mood Is Terrible and the Bills Are Worse
The incoming governor inherits a miserable electorate. A new Public Policy Institute of California survey found more than eight in 10 Californians say the country is headed in the wrong direction, and nearly six in 10 say the same about the state. Just two in 10 approve of Trump, a record low across both his terms.
Then there's the stuff that has nothing to do with Washington. Homeownership is out of reach for millions. Wildfire risk makes insurance harder to get and harder to keep. Housing, utility, and fuel costs run well above the national average. Hollywood is struggling, and residents are increasingly at odds with the tech titans driving the AI boom up north.
Pollster Mark Baldassare put it bluntly: "It's going to be a tough political environment for the new governor." He added that people feel real urgency about prices, housing, and energy costs, and that he's "not sure there's going to be much of a honeymoon." Welcome to Sacramento. The keys are under the mat, and so is the mortgage.
The Dingo Take
The official story is that Becerra's victory is a triumph of resilience, a man who refused to quit and was rewarded for it. The facts say something messier. He was a punchline until another candidate's alleged misconduct blew up the field, and he happened to be the one still standing. That's not an indictment. It's just not a coronation either, and nobody should pretend the Democratic Party chose this.
Here's what matters now. Becerra has real credentials, a long record of actually suing the Trump administration instead of just tweeting about it, and a state that desperately wants him to do two things at once. Beat back Washington and make life cheaper. Newsom got the same assignment and left behind a state where owning a home is a fantasy and insurance is a lottery. Fighting Trump is necessary. It is not a housing policy.
Hilton was right that Californians are exhausted and want something to change, even if his party is the reason half the country is in this mess. Becerra's job is to prove the resistance and the rent can both be handled by the same guy. If he can only do the first one, the "California dream" he keeps selling will stay exactly what it sounds like. A dream.
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