Ashley Moody, the senator who declined to debate her opponent, did fewer public events than her opponent, and signed off on the Hope Florida deal that sent $10 million toward killing a marijuana ballot measure, just won a full night in the Senate. Angie Nixon, the democratic socialist who upset the primary field and then crisscrossed the state in person, lost. Meanwhile, up in New Hampshire, a Republican who tried to hide from Donald Trump lost too.
The Candidate Who Wasn't There
NBC News projected Tuesday night that Moody, a Republican, beat Nixon in the special election for Marco Rubio's old Senate seat. Moody was the overwhelming favorite from the start, which is what happens when you have a giant cash advantage in a state of 23 million people where airtime costs a fortune.
Her campaign was a classic Florida Republican production. Flood the airwaves, skip the debates, hold fewer events, and let the money do the talking. Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried tried to make something of it, standing in Tallahassee last month in front of a sign reading "Where is Ashley Moody?" Fried said Moody should "show up and talk to the people you work for."
The answer to the sign's question, it turns out, was "ahead in the polls." Hiding works when hiding is not punished. In Florida in 2026, it was not.
Hope Florida, the Scandal That Didn't Stick
Let's talk about the baggage Moody carried onto the field, because it was not light. Hope Florida involved $10 million from a Medicaid settlement being directed to a charity tied to Florida first lady Casey DeSantis. A political committee then used that money to oppose the 2024 ballot measure that would have legalized recreational marijuana in the state.
Moody was attorney general at the time, and she had to sign off on the deal. She has denied wrongdoing. A state prosecutor impaneled a grand jury to review the matter, and no charges were brought.
So a Medicaid settlement got routed through a charity and ended up fighting a ballot initiative that voters might have passed, the sign-off came from the person now holding the Senate seat, and the political consequence was nothing. If you were wondering how that works in a state where Republicans now hold a 1.5 million voter registration edge, you've just watched it work.
The Socialist Label Did the Heavy Lifting
Nixon, 42, has represented parts of Jacksonville in the Florida House since 2020. She is aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America and won the Democratic primary in a surprise, beating a more moderate opponent. That upset got national progressives excited, since Democrats have not won a Florida Senate race since 2012.
Then came the general election and the ad war. Moody's spots leaned hard on the socialist label and on DSA positions like "abolishing the police," which Nixon says she does not support. One ad's narrator flatly declared, "Angie Nixon is actually a socialist." Nixon kept pushing back, saying "it's not about labels" and steering toward healthcare and housing affordability.
CBS News noted the label may have hurt with immigrant communities in Florida who fled socialist governments. That's a real constraint in this particular state, and no amount of retail campaigning on housing costs fixes it when the other side is buying every ad slot in the market.
Florida Is Not the Florida It Used to Be
Zoom out and the math is brutal. Democrats held a registration advantage in Florida for decades. Now Republicans lead by 1.5 million voters. Donald Trump carried the state by 13 points in 2024. Once a swing state, Florida is now a place where a Republican can skip the debates and still cruise.
Nixon outworked Moody on the ground. She blanketed the state with in-person events and became a regular on both traditional state media and the center-left podcast circuit. It was a genuine campaign, and it ran into a registration wall and a cash wall at the same time.
Moody will serve the final two years of the term Rubio won in 2022. The seat goes back on the ballot in 2028 for a full term, so Florida Democrats get to do this all over again in about two years.
Meanwhile, in New Hampshire, a Republican Hid From Trump and Still Lost
The night was not all good news for the GOP. CBS News projected that Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas defeated former Sen. John Sununu in New Hampshire, keeping Jeanne Shaheen's retiring seat in Democratic hands. Pappas, 46, has been in the House since 2019 and sits on the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus. He ran as an independent voice for New Hampshire.
Sununu, 62, is the son of a former governor and the brother of another, and he came back for a second act after losing to Shaheen in 2008. Republicans saw him as one of their few pickup chances this cycle. His strategy was to run away from the president. One late ad had him saying, "The way Chris Pappas tells it, I'm President Trump's long-lost son. I've never even met the man."
It did not work. CBS News tied the loss to strong headwinds for Republicans, including the unpopular war in Iran and high gas and diesel prices. Several GOP Senate candidates have found themselves in surprisingly competitive races this cycle for the same reasons. Democrats are now eyeing flips in several other contests that could deliver them a Senate majority.
The Dingo Take
Start with the people who actually knocked on the doors and filled the church basements. Angie Nixon's volunteers, her supporters across the state, and the Democrats who finally thought Florida might be worth a fight just watched their candidate outwork her opponent in every way you can measure and lose anyway. That's a rough thing to sit through. It's also not a mystery.
The lesson from Florida is not complicated and it's not comforting. Money, registration numbers, and a label that a lot of voters in that state find radioactive beat shoe leather. Moody ducked debates, ducked events, and carried a $10 million scandal that never produced a single charge, and none of it mattered. A party that is down 1.5 million registered voters can't fix that in one cycle with a good podcast tour.
But the same night shows the other side of the ledger. In New Hampshire, a Republican with a famous last name and a pitch to be independent of Trump still lost, because the war in Iran and gas prices are dragging the whole brand down. Florida's electorate has sorted itself into a fortress. Most of the rest of the map has not. Democrats should read both results at once, and stop pretending either one is the whole story.
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